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Ask a core dev working at Google about the scariest possible nightmare, and it would probably be answered in the following fashion: you wake up to brilliant sunlight on a relaxing Sunday morning ablaze with the desire to cook a delicious Italian Frittata; you pick up your smartphone and ask Microsoft’s Bing search engine for a recipe, and voila, a lilting voice immediately starts firing away cogent instructions in a calm and precise manner; it feels as natural as if your great aunt Teresa herself were narrating the recipe. This scenario is closer than ever to becoming a reality courtesy of Bing’s upcoming integration with OpenAI’s revolutionary ChatGPT.
For the uninitiated, OpenAI’s ChatGPT is a generative artificial intelligence algorithm that leverages deep learning via Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) to create new content that is virtually indistinguishable from human-created content. To do so, GANs use two types of neural networks, where a generator creates new content while a discriminator evaluates that content and then provides feedback to the generator. In this way, GANs progressively self-evolve.
We are piloting ChatGPT Plus, a subscription plan that offers faster response times and reliability during peak hours. And of course, the free tier of ChatGPT is still available. https://t.co/2hEBw6h5Se
— OpenAI (@OpenAI) February 1, 2023
In recent weeks, ChatGPT has taken the tech world by storm by generating entire knowledge-based paragraphs on a mere prompt. Crucially, ChatGPT formulates its pertinent responses to queries in a fluid manner, precluding the bumbling and incoherent manner of responses that have been the hallmark of similar initiatives so far. A $20-per-month premium tier for ChatGPT is already available in the US, offering access even during peak times, faster response times, and priority access to new features and improvements.
Of course, Microsoft has emerged as the biggest beneficiary of the rise of the ChatGPT phenomenon. The tech giant announced back in January 2023 that it was investing an additional $10 billion in OpenAI, bringing its total investments in the revolutionary company to $13 billion. In return for providing this funding, as well as access to its cloud-computing service Azure, Microsoft has received rights to 75 percent of OpenAI’s profits until the tech giant is able to recoup the entirety of its $13 billion investment. Thereafter, Microsoft will receive 49 percent of OpenAI’s profits until these returns reach the $92 billion mark, after which Microsoft’s shares will revert to OpenAI’s non-profit foundation.
MICROSOFT ARE TO INCLUDE CHATGPT IN BING IN THE COMING WEEKS - SEMAFOR. $MSFT
— Breaking Stocks 🎢 (@BreakingStocks_) February 1, 2023
Meanwhile, Microsoft has accelerated the creation of synergies with OpenAI. The tech giant is expected to formally integrate ChatGPT with its Bing search engine. Moreover, Microsoft’s Azure cloud customers will soon receive access to various OpenAI tools, including the GPT-3.5 language system that is the progenitor of ChatGPT itself. Azure customers will also receive access to the DALL-E model that allows users to create images from text prompts. Microsoft is also deepening the integration of OpenAI’s products with its Copilot programming tool, the Office suite of products, the Teams offering, and security-focused initiatives.
So, how does the rise of ChatGPT affect Google? Well, as is evident from the snippet above, interest in ChatGPT is clearly elevated. In fact, according to a study by UBS, ChatGPT reached 100 million monthly active users in January 2023, following its launch a mere two months back. Moreover, 13 million unique users interacted with ChatGPT every day in January. UBS then proclaimed:
Does this mean that Google will soon become a relic of a bygone era? Not so fast. For one, Google is also working on its own chatbot called the Apprentice Bard. Moreover, there are concerns that a chat-based search engine might not be as conducive to monetization avenues. After all, if users get cogent answers in a chat-based format, they would be less likely to click on additional links, including ones placed as advertisements.
These are, however, teething problems that are likely to be resolved with the passage of time. Meanwhile, the Total Addressable Market (TAM) for OpenAI and ChatGPT is huge. Consider the fact that Google earned $150 billion in revenue from its search engine in 2021 alone. If ChatGPT-enabled Bing is able to snatch even 10 percent of Google’s 91.88 percent (as of June 2022) share of the global search engine market, it will correspond to additional revenues of $15 billion per year, assuming that Bing is able to monetize this new user activity at Google-level efficiency.
When Oppenheimer witnessed the detonation of a nuclear weapon in 1946, he is reported to have said: “Now I am become death, the destroyer of worlds.” Unless Google is able to launch a viable competitor to ChatGPT soon, it faces the specter of a Blackberry-like descent into irrelevancy – a fate that is inarguably worse than death itself.
